In June, EU citizens will head to the polls in elections for the European Parliament. These elections mark the end of the current Commission’s term in office with the “Green Deal” as its undisputed legacy. But what can we expect from the next Commission?
The process for deciding what a new Commission should focus on is multi-faceted and the outgoing Commission always likes to prepare some homework for their successors. Earlier this month they began handing out assignments with the publication of two important documents.
The first is the recommendation that the EU set an emissions reduction target of 90% by 2040. The “2040 Communication” puts fossil fuels firmly in their sights, calling for an 80% reduction in their use by the end of the next decade. This is partly a response to the impact volatile fossil fuel prices had on energy supply following the invasion of Ukraine. However, it also signals a possible change to the EU’s usual approach. EU Climate policy has historically focused on supply-side solutions – for example, increasing the generation of renewable energy through target setting – but this implies a move to focus on the use or demand-side of the equation.
The same applies to biomass. Policy interventions have traditionally focused on the sustainability of supply with the creation and expansion of mandatory sustainability criteria. However, the 2040 Communication could signal the start of a new chapter emphasising a need to “embrace circularity and sustainably sourced bio-based products”. In doing so, the Commission shows a clear interest not just in what biomass is used for, but also how it isused, noting “Bioenergy should go in priority to sectors where the potential for electrification is limited, such as air or maritime transport”.
Another of those priority sectors will likely be carbon removals through Bioenergy Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). This is recognised by the EU Commission through the parallel release of an EU strategy for Carbon Capture Use and Storage (“Industrial Carbon Management Strategy”).
The Strategy is heavy on ambition. The Commission’s modelling shows a need to capture 280 million tonnes of CO2 by 2040, with almost half coming from biogenic sources (biomass), or by using electricity to capture it directly from the air (Direct Air Capture). To deliver on this, a 19,000 km transport network will be needed and the whole carbon value chain will need to be economically viable by 2040!
The strategy is not narrow in vision either. It clearly recognises the need for technologies like BECCS to produce negative emissions (which I’ve written about before). It is also welcome that in addition to storage, there is a focus on the use of captured carbon. The strategy foresees that by 2050, half of captured emissions will be recycled to produce synthetic fuels, chemicals, polymers, and minerals. Here again there is an emphasis on the demand side as they note a need to “assess demand pull options…to increase the uptake of sustainable carbon as a resource…”
These are all welcomed aspirations. However, the unmentioned factor is that the demand side measures invariably involve financial support. While the Commission may keep a watchful eye on how public money is spent, it is not directly in charge of spending such funds – that is in the purview of the member states. Under the Green Deal, those member states have stretching renewables and emissions reduction targets to fund and meet for 2030, and just seven years to deliver – which could cause some friction.
Ultimately, the deciding factor will be politics. The outgoing Commission is just one entity that influences its successors. The makeup of the European Parliament and the leadership of the individual member states will weigh more significantly. However, with President von der Leyen widely expected to continue for a second mandate, continuity could be the Soup Du Jour in Brussels.
About the author
Andrew Georgiou
Director, Policy and Regulation Europe, Enviva
Andrew Georgiou is the Director of Policy and Regulation in Europe for Enviva, the world’s largest producer of industrial wood pellets. With almost 15 years of experience working in politics and public policy he leads Enviva’s engagement with policymakers across Europe. He sits on the Board of Bioenergy Europe and takes part in a number of working groups on a broad range of biomass policy issues affecting the EU and UK.
