Dutch waste-to-energy plants are evolving from national waste processors into part of a European system for waste, raw materials, and energy. In this role, they could achieve a net negative CO2 balance by 2030, provided they actually capture and store CO2. This is the key finding of the study *Future Scenarios for Dutch AECs in an EU Context*, which TNO completed on June 18, 2026.
The study was conducted by Rick Scholtes, Toon van Harmelen, Tom Ligthart, and Alix Reichenecker, commissioned by six waste-to-energy plants located in the Netherlands. It builds upon an earlier TNO study from 2024 for the Ministries of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy (EZK) and Infrastructure and Water Management (IenW), and adds the European context and a number of technologies that were previously overlooked, including CO2 capture and storage, post-separation of plastics, metals, and beverage cartons, and metal recovery from bottom ash. Environmental performance was determined using a life cycle analysis in accordance with ISO 14040 and 14044.
The figures show a clear turnaround. In the 2030 policy path, in which the Netherlands achieves its circular targets and captures no CO2, the balance amounts to 1.388 kton CO2 equivalent, or 732 kton when the avoided production of primary plastics is included. As soon as CCS is applied, this reverses to minus 1.538 kton, and with avoided plastic production to minus 2.193 kton. TNO points out that this shift is not solely due to the elimination of fossil emissions. Because the biogenic CO2 from the incinerated waste is also permanently stored, a negative climate contribution is created. According to the sorting analyses used, approximately one-third of the mixed municipal waste consists of vegetable, fruit, and garden waste, and nearly one-fifth of paper and cardboard—streams that largely determine the biogenic fraction.
Less Dutch waste, more European supply
At the same time, the domestic base is shrinking. While 7.462 kton of waste were incinerated in 2021, the available Dutch supply in the policy path decreases to 5.108 kton in 2030, whereas processing capacity is estimated at approximately 7.390 kton per year. Without additional flows, underutilization will occur, and consequently, according to the researchers, less investment capacity for the CCS installations that are supposed to deliver the climate benefits.
According to the study, that capacity can partly come from Europe. By 2035 at the latest, EU member states are allowed to landfill a maximum of ten percent of their municipal waste, a target that previously applied to 2030. Based on the Early Warning reports, TNO deduces that a significant number of countries will not meet this target, with a potential surplus of approximately 30.000 kton in 2030, particularly in Spain, Greece, Romania, Poland, Portugal, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Italy, and Bulgaria. The researchers themselves acknowledge the limitations of this estimate, as there is no insight into the competition for these flows. Processing in the Netherlands does, however, prevent the methane emissions released during landfilling, which TNO links to the Global Methane Pledge that the Netherlands has signed.
Remarks on the broader environmental performance
A better CO2 score does not mean that everything improves. Of the seventeen remaining environmental impact categories, the majority deteriorate in every scenario compared to 2021, primarily because avoided emissions from energy production decrease as the Dutch electricity mix becomes cleaner. Improvement occurs mainly in toxicity. TNO notes that the installations and infrastructure for CO2 capture have not been included, which slightly underestimates the environmental impact, whereas omitting avoided plastics production from this calculation actually leads to an overestimation.
The report also places a caveat on the assumptions used. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency notes that in practice, circular targets regularly lag behind ambitions, meaning the available waste supply may turn out higher than assumed. According to TNO, the range for 2050 is so wide that both scarcity and abundance are possible. The advice is therefore not to reduce processing capacity too quickly, and to make decisions regarding capacity, recycling targets, imports, and CO2 storage in conjunction with each other.
TNO Report: Future scenarios for Dutch AECs in an EU context
Photo: AI-generated image by Kristina, Adobe Stock
