On April 22, 2026, consultancy firm Guidehouse presented a new report on biogases in Europe to the European Parliament. The meeting was organized by the European Biogas Association (EBA), the European trade association for the biogas sector. The central question: how much renewable gas can Europe produce itself from residual streams and waste in the coming decades?
Biogas is produced by the fermentation of organic material such as manure, green waste, sewage sludge, and agricultural residues. After purification, the result is biomethane, a gas that has the same properties as natural gas and can flow through the existing gas network.
How big is the potential?
Today, Europe still produces relatively little: in 2024, this amounted to 5 billion cubic meters of biomethane and 17 billion cubic meters of biogas used directly for heat and electricity. By comparison, the entire EU consumed approximately 332 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2024, the vast majority of which was imported.
According to Guidehouse, this can grow substantially. The study estimates the potential at 34 to 35 billion cubic meters in 2030, 116 to 132 billion cubic meters in 2040, and 181 to 205 billion cubic meters in 2050. With this, biogas could eventually meet a significant share of European gas consumption.
Brussels' goal is coming into sight, but not by itself
In 2022, the European Commission set a target via the REPowerEU plan: 35 billion cubic meters of biomethane per year by 2030. The Guidehouse report shows that the natural potential is large enough to achieve that goal, but that it is unlikely to succeed in practice. The reason: too little action has been taken in recent years to actually mobilize resources and get projects off the ground.
It is striking that the estimate for 2030 turns out lower than in previous studies. Not because there is less potential, but simply because time is running out.
Three technologies, three paces
The report distinguishes three production routes. Anaerobic digestion, the classic biogas process using waste and manure, remains the main component: around 61 percent of the potential in 2040 and still 53 percent in 2050. In addition, two techniques are emerging that are currently used to a limited extent: thermal gasification, in which woody biomass is converted into gas at high temperatures, and e-methane, in which biogenic CO₂ is reused to produce additional renewable gas. These latter two will become particularly relevant after 2030.
Not all raw materials are equally fragile
An important nuance in the report: for wet residual streams such as manure, organic waste, sewage sludge, and industrial wastewater, there is little competition from other sectors. These streams are hardly suitable for other energy applications and are therefore relatively safely available for biogas production. The situation is different for woody biomass. This is also in demand for sustainable aviation fuel, carbon sequestration, and bio-based building materials. Scarcity will emerge here towards 2050.
What is needed to utilize the potential?
Guidehouse emphasizes that the potential can only be realized through faster permitting, coherent policy, and targeted support for farmers, waste processors, and project developers. Fallow or contaminated land can also play a role by growing crops for biogas production, which simultaneously contributes to soil restoration.
Representatives from the European Commission, national governments, industry, knowledge institutions, and civil society organizations were present at the meeting in Brussels. According to the organizers, the goal was to broaden the discussion on the role of biogases in the European energy supply.
Sources: euractiv.com | europeanbiogas.eu
Photo: Dreadlock, Adobe Stock
