New research from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology shows that, under a favorable scenario, Europe has enough biomass residue streams to completely replace fossil fuels in road transport. The potential is also significant in the shorter term. As early as 2030, more than half of fuel demand could be met by renewable liquid fuels.
The discussion about the future of mobility often revolves around electrification. But according to researchers at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), there is also potential in residual and waste streams from agriculture, forestry, and the bio-based economy. In their study, they calculate that the European Union could produce enough climate-neutral liquid fuels by 2040 to serve all road traffic. As early as 2030, more than half of the demand could be met.
This does not involve speculative new raw materials, but rather straw from agriculture, woody residues from forestry, and organic waste. This is supplemented by cover crops and energy crops on low-productivity soils, which, according to the researchers, do not compete with food production. According to KIT, it is precisely this broad mix that makes the system more robust and less dependent on a single specific raw material.
Used frying oil is only a small part of the total
In the debate on renewable fuels, much attention is focused on used frying oil. However, according to KIT, used cooking oil represents only about one percent of the total raw material potential. According to the researchers, the larger volume is found in agricultural residues, wood fibers, and other biogenic waste streams.
The study examined multiple production routes. One of these is HVO, in which oil-containing residues are converted into a diesel substitute. In addition, the authors investigated methanol-based processes, in which plant-based residues are processed into gasoline or diesel substitutes via an intermediate step. HVO is already commercially available, while other routes are still under development and, according to KIT, are being tested in vehicles.
Liquid fuels remain part of the mobility system
The study was commissioned by BMW AG, together with the Deutsches Biomasseforschungszentrum, engineering firm Freyberger, and BMW itself. The study is based on an ambitious scenario in which the implementation of the Paris Climate Agreement succeeds and the necessary preconditions are met in a timely manner. It therefore concerns potential under favorable circumstances.
An important finding of the study is that, according to the authors, electrification does not immediately eliminate all fuel demand. A large part of the existing fleet will remain in use for years to come. Renewable liquid fuels can offer a route for those vehicles to reduce emissions, alongside further electrification of transport.
This is relevant for the biomass sector because the study shows that residual streams in particular can play an important role in a future European market for renewable transport fuels. The researchers also emphasize that various conversion routes, from HVO to methanol-based fuels, make the chain less vulnerable if the composition of available raw materials changes.
The study thus primarily demonstrates the significant theoretical potential of European residual streams. According to the researchers, whether that potential is actually utilized depends on policy, scaling up, and the availability of sustainable biomass.
Source: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. The full research has been published via KITopen.
Photo: KIT
