The energy transition isn't just about technology or policy, but also about making choices that will endure if the future turns out differently than expected. Researchers from ETH Zurich and RWTH Aachen, among others, recently published a study that explores precisely this. How can you use biomass in a way that not only seems logical today, but also proves valuable tomorrow?
In the study, published in May 2025 on the open platform arXiv, the researchers used a novel method for system planning. Instead of focusing on a single predicted future scenario, they considered 936 different scenarios. Each scenario varied based on factors such as feedstock prices, the availability of renewable electricity, technological developments, and the pace of electrification. The central question: which choices with biomass lead to a robust energy system in the most cases?
The results show that not every application of biomass is equally sensible. Using biomass for low-grade heat, such as residential heating or small-scale district heating, proved to be a poor choice in many scenarios. These applications offered little flexibility and scored relatively poorly when considering effectiveness, costs, and alternatives. This was different for applications such as biofuels and bio-based chemicals. These proved valuable in almost all future scenarios, even if the availability of sustainable electricity or hydrogen was more favorable. The use of biomass as a feedstock for transport fuels, methane, or sustainable plastics thus proved to be the least sensitive to changes in the rest of the energy system.
What makes this study unique is the method used to evaluate choices. The researchers discussed strategies that are rarely regretted in retrospect, because they continue to perform well in diverse situations. Instead of searching for the optimal future, they examined patterns that proved positive in many scenarios. Especially in a period of high uncertainty, such an approach is particularly relevant for policymakers and investors.
For the use of biomass, this means it's wise to focus choices on sectors where there are few alternatives. Aviation fuels, shipping, chemical feedstocks, and processes that are difficult to electrify seem to benefit most from the use of biogenic carbon. The model also showed that combined systems, such as biorefineries that produce both fuels and chemicals, offer additional value. They spread risks and address multiple market issues simultaneously.
For countries like the Netherlands, where space is limited and industry increasingly demands sustainable fuels and raw materials from biomass, this research offers a clear action perspective. Instead of broadly focusing on biomass for heating or low-value applications, the strength lies in the focus. By focusing infrastructure and policy on high-value applications while simultaneously safeguarding the sustainability of biomass, a resilient energy system is created that adapts to the future.
The research itself is freely available and can be read via arXiv:
Low regret strategies for energy systems planning in a highly uncertain future (May 2025)
