Tackling emissions from land use change (LUC) is one of the biggest challenges facing bioenergy programs. This is also true for Brazil’s RenovaBio policy, which is designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from biofuels. New research conducted as part of IEA Bioenergy Task 45 has examined the effectiveness of RenovaBio’s so-called ‘conversion-free’ criteria, which prohibit biofuel production on land that has had natural vegetation converted since November 2018.
Reducing emissions through conversion-free approach
The study combined the Brazilian Land Use Model (BLUM) and BRLUC 2.0 carbon stock data to compare two scenarios: one with the conversion-free criteria and one without. The results show that the criteria induce a significant reduction in CO2 emissions. In the scenario with the conversion-free criteria, ILUC emissions were 218-428 million tons of CO2 equivalent lower until 2030.
The greatest positive effects were observed in the Cerrado region and the Northern Amazon, where the expansion of agricultural and livestock areas on natural vegetation was most limited. Although other regions, such as the South and Southeast, showed less land use change, they remain important producers of sugarcane and soy.
Policy remains crucial despite uncertainties
While uncertainties in land use models are inevitable, the study highlights that the scale of observed emission reductions is large enough to underline the importance of the conversion-free criteria. This approach reduces the incentive to convert natural habitats and helps protect vulnerable ecosystems.
The findings not only illustrate the importance of strict regulations in the Brazilian context, but also underscore the need for global efforts to combat deforestation, both directly and indirectly.
The study concludes that the conversion-free criteria are essential for the success of RenovaBio and provide an example for other countries that want to develop sustainable bioenergy policies. Maintaining these criteria is not only important for Brazil, but also for the global fight against climate change and biodiversity loss.
Source: IEABioenergy
