Professor Jack Saddler, co-author of an IEA Bioenergy report on the aviation sector, argues for the deployment of biofuels as the most viable route to carbon neutrality in aviation by 2. According to Saddler, governments will play a crucial role in achieving the targets.
However, fully decarbonising the aviation sector will require significant investment, with some of the costs borne by governments and society. The price of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), such as biojet fuel, is currently two to five times higher than fossil fuels, making policy support essential to achieving the net-zero goal, Saddler said.
The IEA Bioenergy report, which Saddler co-authored with Susan van Dyk, highlights that aviation is responsible for almost 2-3% of global CO2 emissions, which equates to 915 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent per year. While the challenge is significant, Saddler points to the potential of biofuels, such as used cooking oil (UCO) fuel, to change this.
Saddler emphasizes that while technical advances such as more efficient aircraft designs and improved air traffic control contribute to emissions reductions, the use of SAF will have the greatest impact. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates that SAF could reduce up to 65% of aviation emissions, making it crucial for long-haul flights where other technologies, such as green electricity and hydrogen, have limitations.
However, demand for SAF is huge: a report by IEA Bioenergy estimates that 412 to 556 billion liters will be needed annually to make the aviation sector carbon neutral. Currently, the industry produces just 2 billion liters of SAF, a fraction of what is needed. SAF production is expected to increase, with 1,9 plants announced worldwide that could produce a combined 142 billion liters per year.
Saddler sees the 10% target for SAF in 2030 as achievable, provided governments implement policies that support biojet fuels. However, the ambitious goal of full carbon neutrality by 2 remains challenging given current capacity.
The full report is available here: Progress in Commercialization of Biojet/Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF): Technologies and policies
Source: IEA Bioenergy
