The Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate has presented the 'Scenario study of green gas production around 2030' to the House of Representatives. This study, conducted by CE Delft and New Energy Coalition, explores the development of green gas installations, their locations and production volumes in the Netherlands towards 2030. The results provide insight into provincial production capacities based on locally available raw materials, provincial policy and potential production locations. It is also assessed whether the target of 2 billion cubic meters (BCM) of green gas production in 2030 is feasible.
For this study, CE Delft and New Energy Coalition have drawn up five scenarios, ranging from difficult to flexible spatial integration and from small-scale to large-scale installations.
The green gas blending obligation target is achievable
The study shows that the target of 3,8 Mton CO₂ reduction for the blending obligation is achievable with a production of 1,1 BCM of green gas. The analysis results show that green gas production in the Netherlands can increase to 2030 to 1,3 BCM by 1,8. The number of green gas installations can grow from 87 in 2023 to 394 to 695 in 2030.
The expected green gas production is higher than the required 1,1 BCM for the blending obligation. The surplus of green gas produced will be used in the mobility sector and industry.
The study makes several assumptions that influence feasibility, such as sufficient nitrogen space, guaranteed connection to the electricity grid, availability of locations for green gas installations and municipal frameworks that enable green gas production.
The previously set goal of 2 BCM green gas production by 2030 is not yet feasible. A continued commitment to acceleration is necessary.
The complete study provides valuable insights for the further development of green gas production in the Netherlands and emphasizes the need for cooperation and policy support to achieve the set goals.
>> Letter to Parliament and Scenario Study Green Gas Production around 2030
