The Netherlands can be climate neutral by 2050 without adjusting its economic structure. This is evident from new research by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL). The condition is that the production of bio raw materials and green hydrogen is significantly scaled up.
The PBL calculated more than thirty techno-economic trajectories and concludes that postponing or excluding options in advance makes achieving climate neutrality in the Netherlands almost or even completely impossible by 2050. All raw materials and techniques are useful and necessary, including the use of bio raw materials, CO2 capture and storage (CCS) and adjustments in agriculture and rural areas.
Electricity
In cost-optimal ways to a climate-neutral Netherlands in 2050, electricity production will grow by a factor of 3 to 5. More than half of the energy will come directly or indirectly from solar, wind and nuclear energy. Bio-raw materials (3 to 6 times as much as now) and hydrogen will become the necessary replacements for current fossil energy carriers, especially for the production of advanced aviation and shipping fuel and as a raw material for the chemical industry. Scaling up production and logistics for bio-raw materials and green hydrogen in the short term is urgent. However, these indispensable substitutes for fossil fuels will remain scarce in the period up to 2050. Burning biomass for electricity generation is therefore not an obvious option.
If the availability of bio-based raw materials and hydrogen is disappointing, climate neutrality in the Netherlands will become significantly more expensive or even impossible in 2050 due to changes in the use of energy and raw materials, the PBL warns. Then climate neutrality is only feasible through more CO2 storage or a different lifestyle that uses significantly less energy and raw materials.
A climate-neutral Netherlands in 2050 does not have to be completely fossil-free. Most of the calculated routes still use some fossil fuel, the emissions of which are compensated within the Netherlands.
See the PBL website for more information.
Source: Agro-chemical.nl
