At the end of last year I took part in a working visit to a few interesting bio boilers in Amersfoort. Then the question arose how much sustainable biomass there is actually locally: How do you show that there is enough biomass in a radius of 150 km around Amersfoort? It turned out that an answer was not easy to give. Because I am a resident of Amersfoort myself, I went looking for an answer. That was not an easy search, because I now understand how complex giving the answer is.
The research agency CE Delft (2024) distinguishes 24 types of bio-raw materials and seven applications. All 24 types are suitable for the 'heat' application. The question in Amersfoort is about the use of wood from the landscape for heat. That's just one combination of a total of 24×7=168 combinations. Each combination forms a market in itself, which is further influenced by the markets around it. For example: Accelerated electrification of mobility leads to less competition for the same bio-raw materials that can also be used for heat or construction.
You can also have different perspectives on those 168 markets. The PBL (2020) distinguishes five perspectives on the availability of bio-raw materials: (1) Climate; (2) Strictly renewable; (3) Renewable raw materials; (4) Ecology and (5) Sustainable development. The PBL says about the perspectives: “uncertain knowledge, differing assessments of the environmental effects of sustainability processes once initiated, differing confidence in monitoring systems, differing scientific perspectives, differing values and interests. And we are only talking about two of the five perspectives on the use of biomass identified in this study.” The PBL therefore concludes: “The multifaceted complexity makes an unambiguous scientific judgment impossible.”
Well, no clear answer. But we can always try to arrive at a 'best guess' from a certain perspective. I then opt for an economic view from my climate perspective. I try to focus on one combination as much as possible.
Economically, there is an easy answer and a difficult answer.
The easy answer is that there is sufficient local biomass for a municipality, if the municipality is willing to pay for it. The price corrects the supply, at least in the short term. Anyone who wants local biomass simply pays more as it becomes scarcer. Others will source biomass from further away, they will buy different biomass or less biomass. A buyer can limit increasing scarcity and price increases by concluding long-term contracts.
There is sufficient biomass in the world and more woody biomass is being added in Europe. The potential of biomass from water is still beyond the estimates. Europe can double its use and remain well within sustainable limits.
But this easy answer is of course not satisfactory because affordability also has its limits. What about the difficult answer?
First the demand side.
Woody biomass is a relatively cheap source of heat. If more municipalities consider the affordability of the heat transition important or if they come up against the limits of electrification (grid congestion), this could certainly lead to greater demand, especially in heat networks. Yet CE Delft sees little growth in demand for this bio-raw material for energy. The PBL also expects no major growth in the use of biomass for energy in the KEV 2023 estimate. CE Delft does oversee the total of the 168 combinations and sees that the scarcity of, and competition for, bio raw materials will increase sharply between now and 2030. Dutch demand is expected to increase by 70 to 100%. This is mainly due to two blending obligations; in fuels for traffic and in green gas. The first has little influence on the demand for woody biomass for heat, but the second can have it.
Then the supply side.
I know of two studies by municipalities into biomass sources, one in Dronten and the other in - is it a coincidence? – Amersfoort.
The municipality of Dronten (van Hassel, 2011) has relatively little forest of its own (160 hectares). Here, a medium-sized bio boiler can run on chips of residual wood from the own forest. This can cover 10% of the heating demand of all households. It is smart that Dronten further looked at what a municipality can do to increase the supply of biomass, for example by planting more trees along the road and by encouraging the planting of wooded areas.
According to research in Amersfoort (BTG 2010), the total practical energy potential is 230.000 GJ/year. This involves a multitude of flows ranging from released wood from the landscape manager to demolition wood and roadside grass. If I calculate with 31 natural gas equivalents per GJ and with an average consumption of 1.000 m3 of natural gas, this amounts to a potential of roughly 7.000 homes.
In conclusion, from my perspective as an economic climate thinker:
- I find it striking that Amersfoort and Dronten, as relatively forest-poor municipalities, both have approximately 10% of households. Is that a coincidence or is that a rule of thumb?
- I saw that many of the local sources were not (yet) used locally and that more local sources could be planted.
- I think that if we look beyond the municipal boundaries, the possibilities are also greater for Amersfoort, because there are regional municipalities with a 'surplus' of biomass. For example, because they do not install a heating network or because they have many more forests and landscape elements.
I would like to elaborate further on the availability per municipality. After all, municipalities have an important role in the heat transition. The government believes that the availability of bio raw materials is a crucial precondition for a climate-neutral and circular economy. I wholeheartedly agree with that. I would just like to have a better picture of that availability, so that municipalities can draw up policy on this. Can't we make a simple calculation tool for municipalities?
About the author
Hemmo Hemmes
NBKL
Hemmo Hemmes (1963, Public Administration) helps organizations design and analyze policy. He mainly focuses on sustainability and sustainable energy.
He is now active as a sustainability policy advisor at a municipality and as secretary of the trade association for bio boilers (NBKL). You can always wake him up to work together on good policy.
