The climate targets for 2030 are within reach, provided that policy intentions are translated into robust laws and regulations and implemented expeditiously, such as road pricing and mandating heat pumps. This is evident from the preliminary Climate and Energy Outlook (KEV) published today on Budget Day by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL). In just one year, the 'CO2 policy gap' has shrunk significantly: from 22 to 11 megatons. This is unprecedented and gives cause for optimism. It is striking that almost all sectors are reasonably on track. “We are heading in the right direction, but only if we keep running at full speed in the implementation of the energy transition can we achieve the goals. This is a marathon, not interval training. Political will is needed to make difficult choices and to arrange practical matters, for example regarding nitrogen, lead times, and bats,” says Olof van der Gaag, Chairman of the Netherlands Association for Sustainable Energy (NVDE).
According to the PBL, the CO2 reduction in 2030 will range between 46 and 57 percent. The Cabinet set a target of 55 percent and aims for 60 percent. To reach the upper end of this range, everything must fall into place, including uncontrollable factors such as weather and electricity imports. Important preconditions are the rapid implementation of legislation and regulations, enforcement, faster permitting, and sufficient trained personnel. Electricity demand is growing by more than ten percent, and fortunately, so is sustainable generation. This presents major challenges for the energy infrastructure.
Road pricing
There are a number of obstacles on the road towards climate goals and energy independence. First of all, the PBL was unable to account for the fall of the cabinet and delays caused by elections and the formation of a government. As a result, a new gap is emerging in mobility. The cabinet reports that Pay-as-you-use (= road pricing; which saves 0,5 to 2,5 megatons according to the PBL) and the target of a 1,2 million ton CO2 reduction via energy tax rate adjustments are being deferred to a future cabinet. Electric driving will soon be taxed more heavily than fossil fuel driving. From 2025, an electric family car will pay more than double the motor vehicle tax compared to a diesel truck of 40 tons or more.
Bats and nitrogen
Other proposed climate policies must also remain in place. For the built environment, the implementation of the standardization of hybrid heat pumps is crucial. A financial scheme for CO₂ - free power plants is also necessary for the transition.
Moreover, the PBL points out the need for rapid and ambitious elaboration and implementation, as well as potential obstacles to execution such as grid capacity. As far as the NVDE is concerned, an exemption is needed for sustainable energy projects and energy infrastructure where some nitrogen is emitted during construction and which save significant CO2 and nitrogen over their lifespan . Project lead times are still far too long: permits often take 8 years and construction 2 years. This should be two to two. And finally, the stringent interpretation of European protection legislation for bats, among other things, is causing the insulation sector to grind to a halt at a time when rapid insulation is desperately needed to ensure people can pay their energy bills and to meet climate targets in the built environment.
Energy security
There is rightly a great deal of political attention focused on affordable energy bills. The House is aiming for tax cuts to lower energy and fuel bills for everyone. However, these expenditures offer no structural solution; in fact, they even hinder the transition to such a structural solution. The NVDE proposed making the poorest neighborhoods more sustainable, fully funded by the government for people with the lowest incomes. This kills three birds with one stone: energy poverty is reduced, the business sector can scale up and cut costs, and substantial savings are achieved on natural gas and thus CO2 emissions.
Source: NVDE
