GENEVA, April 4 – In 2010-2019, average annual global greenhouse gas emissions were at the highest levels in human history, but the growth rate has slowed. Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, limiting global warming to 1,5°C is unachievable. However, there is growing evidence for climate action, scientists said in the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), released today.
Since 2010, there have been sustained declines of up to 85% in the costs of solar and wind energy and batteries. An increasing number of policies and laws have improved energy efficiency, reduced deforestation and accelerated the deployment of renewable energy.
“We are at a crossroads. The decisions we make now can secure a viable future. We have the tools and know-how needed to limit warming,” said IPCC President Hoesung Lee. “I am encouraged by climate action being taken in many countries. There are policies, regulations and market instruments that prove to be effective. If these are scaled up and applied more broadly and equitably, they could support deep emissions reductions and stimulate innovation.”
The executive summary for policymakers of the IPCC Working Group III report, Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of climate change, was adopted by 4 IPCC member states on April 2022, 195, through a virtual endorsement session that began on March 21. It is the third installment of the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), which will be completed this year.
We have options in all sectors to at least halve emissions by 2030
To limit global warming, major transitions in the energy sector are needed. This means a substantial reduction in fossil fuel use, widespread electrification, improved energy efficiency and the use of alternative fuels (such as hydrogen).
“Having the right policies, infrastructure and technology to enable changes in our lifestyle and behavior could result in a 40-70% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. This offers significant untapped potential,” said IPCC Working Group III co-chair Priyadarshi Shukla. “The evidence also shows that these lifestyle changes can improve our health and well-being.”
Cities and other urban areas also offer great opportunities for emissions reduction. These can be achieved through lower energy consumption (such as by creating compact, walkable cities), electrification of transport combined with low-emission energy sources, and increased carbon capture and storage using nature. There are opportunities for established, fast-growing and new cities.
“We see examples of zero-energy or carbon-free buildings in almost all climates,” said IPCC Working Group III co-chair Jim Skea. “Action in this decade is critical to unlocking the mitigation potential of buildings.”
Reducing emissions in the industry requires using materials more efficiently, reusing and recycling products, and minimizing waste. For basic materials, including steel, building materials and chemicals, low-to-zero greenhouse gas production processes are in their pilot to near-commercial stages.
This sector accounts for about a quarter of global emissions. Achieving net zero will be a challenge and will require new manufacturing processes, low- and zero-emission electricity, hydrogen and, where necessary, carbon capture and storage.
Agriculture, forestry and other land uses can deliver large-scale emissions reductions and also remove and store carbon dioxide on a large scale. However, countries cannot compensate for delayed emission reductions in other sectors. Response options can benefit biodiversity, help us adapt to climate change and safeguard our livelihoods, food and water and timber resources.
The coming years are crucial
In the scenarios we assessed, limiting warming to around 1,5°C requires global greenhouse gas emissions to peak no later than 2025 and be reduced by 2030% by 43; at the same time, methane should also be reduced by about a third. Even if we do this, it is almost inevitable that we will temporarily exceed this temperature limit, but could be back down by the end of the century.
“It's now or never if we want to limit global warming to 1,5°C,” Skea said. “Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible.”
Global temperatures will stabilize when carbon dioxide emissions reach zero. For 1,5°C this means achieving zero CO2050 emissions worldwide by the early 2s; for 2°C, it is in the early 2070s.
This assessment shows that to limit warming to around 2°C, global greenhouse gas emissions still need to peak before 2025 and be reduced by a quarter by 2030.
Closing investment gaps
The report looks beyond technologies and shows that while financial flows are a factor of three to six times lower than the level needed to limit warming to less than 2030°C by 2, there is sufficient capital and liquidity globally to to close investment gaps. However, it depends on clear signals from governments and the international community, including stronger coordination of public finances and policies.
“Without taking into account the economic benefits of lower adaptation costs or avoided climate impacts, global gross domestic product (GDP) would be only a few percentage points lower in 2050 if we take the necessary measures to limit warming to 2°C or lower , compared to maintaining the current policy,” Shukla said.
Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals
Accelerated and equitable climate action in mitigating and adapting to the impacts of climate change is critical for sustainable development. Some response options can absorb and store carbon while helping communities limit the effects of climate change. In cities, for example, networks of parks and open spaces, wetlands and urban agriculture can reduce flood risk and reduce heat island effects.
Mitigation in the industry can reduce environmental impact and increase employment and business opportunities. Electrification with renewable energy sources and shifts in public transportation can improve health, employment and equity.
“Climate change is the result of more than a century of unsustainable energy and land use, lifestyles and consumption and production patterns,” says Skea. “This report shows how taking action now can lead us to a fairer, more sustainable world.”
Link to the IPCC report
