Greenhouse gas emissions in the Netherlands are expected to decrease by 38-48 percent in 2030 compared to 1990, based on the established and proposed policy. This means that the government's target of emitting 2030 percent less in 49 than in 1990 is not yet in sight. Recent plans, including those from the Budget Memorandum, can contribute to further reductions in emissions. The estimated decrease is now considerably greater than in the KEV 2020, which amounted to a 30-40 percent decrease. This is largely because more concrete policies have been developed for industry and mobility in the past year. With more than eight years to go until 2030, it is important to implement the existing policy as expeditiously as possible. In addition, the current government goal and the additional ambitions recently proposed by the European Commission require new policy for 2030.
These are some of the main conclusions from the Climate and Energy Outlook 2021 (KEV). The annual KEV is prescribed by the Climate Act and is one of the accountability instruments of Dutch climate and energy policy.
Expected emissions in 2030 will be mainly lower due to concrete policy in industry and mobility
In the industry and mobility sectors, progress has been made over the past year regarding the concrete implementation of policy measures. In large-scale industry, the new CO2 levy , in combination with the Sustainable Energy Production and Climate Transition Incentive Scheme (SDE++), is causing a break in the trend of expected greenhouse gas emissions. With this policy, emissions are expected to fall by 9-16 megatonnes of CO2 equivalents in 2030. The decline is largely attributable to CO2 capture and storage (CCS). A smaller share is due to electrification, energy conservation, and the reduction of non-CO2 greenhouse gases. Partly due to the concrete implementation of policies for additional renewable energy, emissions in the mobility sector are expected to fall by just under 3 megatonnes in 2030. The expected growth in road traffic has also been adjusted downwards somewhat, partly because the coronavirus crisis may lead to structurally more working from home.
New climate policy necessary for the government's 2030 target and EU ambitions
With an expected emissions reduction of 38-48 percent in 2030, a residual challenge of 1-11 percentage points remains in 2030 compared to the target of 49 percent, or 3-25 megatonnes of CO2 equivalents . According to the KEV, a small portion of this, roughly 2-4 megatonnes of CO2 equivalents, can still be met if a number of scheduled policy plans and intentions were to be developed concretely and in a timely manner. Our separate note on the climate and energy measures from the 2022 Budget Memorandum indicates that these measures could yield several megatonnes of additional emission reduction in 2030.
The recent European climate package Fit for 55 has not yet been sufficiently developed to estimate a conceivable contribution to the expected remaining task of the Netherlands in 2030. The package contains proposals and ambitions that may still change significantly in political decision-making, but will in any case also mean a significant additional effort for the Netherlands.
All things considered, the Netherlands will face a major challenge in the coming years to implement the existing policy as expeditiously as possible and to implement both the current national climate goals and the additional efforts due to the Fit for 55 proposals. This requires new policy for 2030, which must also take into account the long-term transition until 2050 and other policy themes such as tackling nitrogen.
Emissions in 2020 around Urgenda target, probably above in 2021
The emission reduction in 2020 is approximately 25 percent compared to 1990 and is therefore around the Urgenda target, which calls for a minimum 25 percent reduction for 2020 and beyond. The fact that this goal is within reach is due to incidental developments in the energy sector in 2020, the relatively warm weather in 2020 and a temporary decrease in emissions from road traffic due to COVID-19 effects. However, the expectation for 2021 is that emissions in the Netherlands will increase again and exceed the Urgenda target. This is partly due to the relatively colder weather in the first half of 2021 compared to 2020, and the increased activities in industry and the electricity sector. Between 2022 and 2025, emissions will decrease steadily with the currently established and proposed policy, but there remains a risk that the 25 percent reduction target will not be achieved.
Progress on the implementation of the Climate Agreement is limited in the built environment, agriculture and land use
Progress in the elaboration of the 2019 Climate Agreement policy varies greatly per sector. While clear progress has been made in the industry, electricity and mobility sectors, this is only visible to a limited extent in the built environment, agriculture and land use. Various preparatory studies and pilots have been started there, the results of which should contribute to the development of measures. The limited progress sometimes means that previous estimates have to be adjusted downwards. For example, the goal of 1,5 million sustainable existing homes and buildings by 2030 is no longer realistic due to delayed implementation of the policy package of natural gas-free neighborhoods. In agriculture, on the other hand, it is possible to benefit from the structural approach to nitrogen. If this is further developed, it is also expected to lead to reduced greenhouse gas emissions.
Source: PBL
